Can East Africa Build Differently?

East Africa’s housing gap is growing — but so is the opportunity to reshape construction

As East Africa urbanises quickly, formal housing delivery is struggling to keep pace. Africa’s housing deficit is already estimated at roughly 51–56 million units and could rise to about 130 million by 2030. Meeting this demand would require the continent to deliver around 4.5 million new homes every year. Kenya alone faces a deficit of more than two million units, with annual demand of about 250,000 homes and formal delivery still far below that. Uganda’s deficit exceeds 2.4 million homes and grows by roughly 200,000 units each year. Tanzania’s shortfall is above three million homes, while Rwanda’s rapid urban concentration continues to put pressure on Kigali and secondary cities.

From climate lenses, the built environment accounts for a large share of global energy-related emissions, while materials such as cement, steel and fired brick carry significant embodied-carbon costs. The region will build millions of homes in the coming decades; the materials chosen now will shape emissions, jobs, local value capture and urban resilience for a generation.

Bio-based construction therefore offers practical economic and climate opportunity, not as a wholesale replacement for conventional materials, but as part of a more diversified construction economy. Sustainable timber, engineered wood, bamboo, agricultural residues and bio-composites can reduce embodied carbon, support circularity, and create new industrial value chains linked to sustainable forestry and regenerative agriculture.

East Africa is not starting from zero, but more needs to happen in mid-stream manufacturing

One of the more important reminders from the broader context is that East Africa is not resource poor. Uganda’s plantation area has grown from roughly 268,000 hectares in 2000 to about 465,000 hectares by 2020. Kenya Forest Service manages around 140,000 hectares of industrial plantations, largely pine, cypress and eucalyptus. Tanzania’s public plantation forests are estimated at about 120,000 hectares, with private and community woodlots bringing total plantation estimates to well above 400,000 hectares nationally. The region also includes roughly 50,000 hectares of FSC-certified commercial forestry resources, with additional private and public plantations moving toward certification. Beyond timber, there is rising interest in bamboo value chains, particularly in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

The discussion also highlighted the missing middle between plantation and building: kiln drying, planing, profiling, treatment, grading and component manufacturing.

Bio-based construction requires specific, high-quality products, which the market currently struggles to provide

A recurring message was that construction markets work around products that are predictable in quantity, quality, and specifications. Cement, steel and industrial boards enter projects through known grades, specifications and supply channels. Timber, by contrast, is still often treated as variable input.

“Construction works when there are standard products that the market understands how to use.” One participant noted.

Several participants described the practical consequences. Developers and contractors may receive timber in inconsistent dimensions or moisture conditions, forcing teams to sort and improvise on site. One manufacturer put it plainly: developers can end up ‘at the site sorting’, looking for one dimension and finding several variants instead. That is not a minor inconvenience. It affects design confidence, costing, timelines, liability, and finance.

“There needs to be an element of standards, and enforcement of the standards, that pushes out the inconsistency and begins to standardise the product.”

The National Building Review Board emphasised that standards must translate into procurement specifications, factory practice, site inspection and enforcement if timber is to be used safely and more widely in construction. But standards alone cannot solve the problem unless the market also has the industrial capability to produce quality inputs.

The missing mid-stream manufacturing capabilities are familiar but still underdeveloped: kiln drying, structural grading, planing, profiling, treatment, engineered products and prefabricated components. Easy Housing, which is already building prefabricated timber homes in Uganda and Kenya, described the gap between forestry and construction as a bottleneck: there may be enough roundwood, but the processing capacity needed for durable timber homes is not yet deep enough.

“There is enough round log on the market, but the processing capacity that we need to build high-quality durable timber homes is the bottleneck.” Says Wolf Bierens, Easy Housing’s CEO.

But where will first market demand come from? Pioneer actors may have to create this deliberately

One of the central challenges discussed was the weak link between quality supply and downstream demand. There are still few suppliers able to provide consistent, kiln-dried, construction-grade timber or engineered timber and bamboo products for the bio-based construction sector. At the same time, downstream demand is not yet large or predictable enough to justify major investment in value addition, such as kiln drying, grading, treatment, engineered products or prefabricated components. Several participants argued that this cycle will only shift when credible demand is built deliberately through practical projects, clearer specifications, and large offtake from institutional buyers and developers willing to test bio-based systems at meaningful scale.

“We have to figure out what mass demand can justify massive investment in standard wood-based construction.” Says Mr. Jerome, Ministry of Trade Industry and Cooperatives.

The Uganda Ministry of Housing linked the opportunity to existing policy direction, noting that Uganda’s housing policy already emphasizes local, sustainable materials. As Dave from the Ministry highlighted, “wood, bamboo and other related products are very critical in this entire value chain.” The challenge is therefore not whether these materials have a place in housing, but how to create enough credible demand for them to be produced, specified and financed at scale.

Government procurement was also discussed as one route. Jerome compared timber to sectors such as textiles, where early public demand helped firms invest and later compete in wider markets. Others argued that institutional buyers and developers could create the first serious pipelines through rental housing, estates, worker accommodation or industrial facilities. The point was not that government should carry the sector indefinitely, but that credible anchor demand can give manufacturers the confidence to invest in kilns, grading lines, engineered wood or component production for the bio-based construction sector.

Private sector pioneers are already testing the market. Easy Housing expects to build around 50 homes this year and is developing propositions for low- and middle-income rentals. Its pilot near Kampala, delivered with partners including Habitat for Humanity and the Affordable Housing Institute, was cited as a practical example of prefab timber housing designed for a demographic where the housing gap is largest.

But the firm was clear that scale would require more than one pioneer. As its founder noted, the region will need ‘multiple Easy Housings’ and a healthier ecosystem of developers, manufacturers, financiers and regulators working in parallel.

“We need multiple Easy Housings… to really have a healthy bio-based building ecosystem.”

Finance, perception and skills will decide how fast the market moves

Financing and capital came up repeatedly. Gatsby Africa highlighted that mortgage access remains low across East Africa; interest rates are high, and many households build incrementally with cash. This makes unfamiliar building systems harder to adopt, even when the long-term case is strong. Gatsby’s emerging thesis, reflected in the closing remarks, is that rental and rent-to-own models backed by institutional capital may help unlock a more bankable route. Pension funds and other long-term investors could help aggregate demand, while manufacturers gain clearer visibility on future orders.

“To address this access-to-finance issue, we need to bring together upstream manufacturers, developers ready to build and institutional financing.” Gatsby Africa noted.

Perception is just as important. Timber still carries memories of temporary structures or failed projects, while concrete and steel are associated with permanence. Participants from the real estate sector argued that well-designed demonstration projects could shift this. If people see timber buildings that are attractive, safe, and durable, the cultural argument changes faster than through policy documents alone.

Skills are part of the same challenge. Carpentry and joinery remain undervalued in many vocational systems, even as demand for higher-quality woodwork could grow.  Mr. Senyondo Mansuli, the Managing Director of Mayondo Engineering Works noted that some institutions are closing carpentry departments in Uganda because too few students enroll. On the same, the Chairman of ADHI, Mr. Soleman Idd emphasized that;

“Training institutions can provide the basics, but real skill is built inside factories. The sector will therefore need both stronger training pipelines and firms capable of turning trainees into productive technicians.”

What role will regional trade and logistics play?

Logistics cannot be an afterthought. The Kuehne Foundation’s presence brought logistics into an area of interest. If Uganda and its neighbors are to serve regional and international markets, the sector has to solve movement: from plantation to sawmill, from sawmill to kiln, and from factory to building site or export market. One of the large producers of kiln dried timber in Uganda noted that logistics costs within the region can be surprisingly high, sometimes making regional trade harder than long-distance export.

This matters because some industrial investments may need both domestic demand and export opportunities.

“A factory built only for narrow local market risks joining a race to the bottom. A factory connected to regional standards, predictable logistics and export-quality specifications can justify better equipment, better skills and better products.” Says John Rabi, the Country Manager, Uganda, Green Resources.

Momentum is building — now the industry needs to move to action

The convening made clear that momentum is building. There is now a stronger shared understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed, and of where the most credible opportunities lie. The discussion helped move the sector beyond broad interest in timber, bamboo and bio-based materials toward a more practical view of what is required to turn them into reliable construction products and commercially viable housing solutions.

Five priorities were highlighted that now need to move together. First, targeted manufacturing investment is needed in the missing middle between plantations and buildings: kiln drying, grading, treatment, profiling, engineered timber and bamboo products, and prefabricated components. Second, standards and quality assurance must move from paper into procurement, factory practice and site inspection, so that bio-based materials become reliable products that developers, designers, and regulators can trust. Third, design and delivery innovation must focus on use cases where timber, bamboo and hybrid systems solve a real commercial problem, such as rental housing, worker accommodation, upward extensions and adaptive reuse, schools, industrial buildings and structured housing developments. Fourth, skills and market confidence need deliberate investment, from carpentry and joinery to architects, engineers, quantity surveyors and contractors who can design, specify and build with bio-based systems. Demonstration projects will be essential to shift perceptions of timber and bamboo from temporary or risky materials to safe, durable and modern construction options. Finally, credible finance and demand structures are needed to unlock scale, including rental and rent-to-own models, institutional offtake, climate-linked finance, and blended capital for first-mover bio-based housing investments.

East Africa does not need another abstract debate about whether bio-based construction is possible. It needs coordinated execution around specific products, projects and investment cases so that the region’s next phase of building strengthens local industry, lowers embodied carbon, creates quality local employment, and creates construction products that developers, regulators, financiers and households can trust.